(Energy Analytics Institute, Ian Silverman, 27.Aug.2018) —Trinidad and Tobago is relying on Russia as its main source of imported crude oil.
Between January and June 2018, the small twin-island country imported over 15 million barrels of crude oil from the [Petrotrin] refinery. Of that, 40% of the crude oil imports came from Russia, 29% from Colombia, 22% from Gabon, 8% from Canada and 1% from Barbados, announced Trinidad and Tobago’s Energy Chamber in a twitter post.
Caribbean Economist Marla Dukharan commented on the situation in the following twitter post.
(Energy Analytics Institute, Piero Stewart, 15.Aug.2018) – If all goes off as planned, by 2025, Guyana will be the 5th largest oil producer in the Latin American and Caribbean region.
That’s according to an analysis of data posted by Trading Economics, and extrapolation of estimates of Guyana’s future oil production, as announced by Kevin Ramnarine, the former Energy Minister of Trinidad and Tobago.
Considering initial production of 120,000 barrels per day in 2020, Guyana will first occupy the spot as the 7th largest oil producer in the LAC region, assuming no drastic changes in the other countries’ production profiles over the next couple of years.
However, in the process, by the time peak production is reached five years latter, Guyana will have surpassed OPEC producer Ecuador, assuming production in that country, as well as others, doesn’t experience a drastic decline, as has been the case in Venezuela in recent years.
(Energy Analytics Institute, Piero Stewart, 15.Aug.2018) – The three promised to return to discuss all things Guyana again in six months as the small South American country eyes first oil in 2020.
A three person panel — comprised of Guyana’s Minister of Finance, the Honourable Winston Jordan, Trinidad and Tobago’s Former Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine, and hosted by Caribbean Economist Marla Dukharan — discussed issues related to Guyana included but not limited to oil, economics, finance, supply issues, infrastructure, and migration, among others (watch the full video below).
What follows are brief highlights as posted during the webinar under the Twitter hashtag #LatAmNRG:
From Kevin Ramnarine …
— “In Guyana, we have moved from 1 to 8 discoveries,” Ramnarine says. He continued: “With an 80% success rate, only 2 wells have been dry.”
— “The whole world is talking about Guyana,” Ramnarine says.
— “Oil production in Guyana is expected to come online at 120,000 barrels per day d in 2020 and peak at 750,000 barrels per day by 2025, according to Exxon,” Ramnarine says.
— “In the early years, Exxon will likely recover Capex. Then, by 2025 we could see an exponential rise in revenues [in Guyana],” Ramnarine says.
— “An infrastructure deficit in Guyana has slowed development in the interior of the country,” Ramnarine says.
— “You want a competitive oil and gas sector that supports that sector,” Ramnarine says.
— “The private sector should take the lead to develop [Guyana’s] infrastructure,” Ramnarine says.
From Winston Jordan …
— “ExxonMobil has put Guyana on the map,” Jordan says.
— “We see ourselves as the Dubai of the Caribbean,” Jordan says.
— “Guyana has infrastructure and human capital resources deficits,” Jordan says.
— “The Guyana tax system is expected to become more efficient in the future,” Jordan says.
— “The best intentions can obviously go wrong,” Jordan says referring to a question related to corruption.
— “We have a lot of challenges, but none are insurmountable,” Jordan says.
— “Guyana is putting together a migration policy to give certain benefits to those wanting to return home,” Jordan says.
— “Guyana will seek a loan with the World Bank to assist in the migration process,” Jordan says.
— “There is no definite word yet about a future refinery in Guyana,” Jordan says.
(With special assistance from Melissa Marchand, who moderated the Q&A session).
(Energy Analytics Institute, Pietro D. Pitts, 14.Aug.2018) – On a per capita basis, Guyana is already probably the most resource-rich country on the planet, but is still the poorest English-speaking country, and the 2nd poorest overall after Haiti, writes an Caribbean region economist.
As the size of oil discoveries in Guyana begin to suffer from diminishing marginal stock-value, attention is shifting to the billion-dollar question – will Guyana somehow leapfrog itself into the region’s shiny new Norway, or devolve further into resource-cursed-istan? That’s the question posed by Caribbean Economist Marla Dukharan in her August “Caribbean Monthly Economic Report.”
“Like true West Indian cricket fans, we pray despite formidable odds for Guyana’s success but we smell the molasses-like bittersweet stickiness of corruption and all its concomitant dysfunctionality,” she writes.
(Energy Analytics Institute, Piero Stewart, 6.Jul.2018) – Oil production will begin in 2020, and the boom in investment beforehand will continue to drive activity, writes Caribbean Economist Marla Dukharan in her “Caribbean Monthly Economic Report.”
Guyana, located in the northeastern region of South America, is readying for an oil boom to come soon from commercialization of recent oil discoveries. Exxon Mobil and partners have to date found recoverable resources estimated at more than 3.2 billion oil-equivalent barrels on the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana. Three of ExxonMobil’s developments will produce more than 500,000 barrels per day, and initial oil flows are slated for 2020.
The economist also said Guyana’s reserves, which amounted to $507 million in April 2018, where down $77 million or 13% compared to December 2017.
“The IMF revised its growth estimate for 2017 down to 2.1% from 3.5%. Growth is then expected to ramp up to 3.5% in 2018, 3.7% in 2019, and with the impact of oil production, 27.8% by 2023. Nope this is not a typo,” wrote Dukharan in her July report.