(Energy Analytics Institute, 25.Apr.2022) — Cuba exceeded its fuel import budget in the first quarter due to higher fuel prices while Trinidad & Tobago is expected to experience a “balance of payments crisis this year “absent significant reforms and economic recovery,” Caribbean Region Economist Marla Dukharan wrote 25 April 2022 in the Caribbean Monthly Economic Report.
Highlights from the report include:
Fuel shortages continued in Q1 though CUPET assures recovery to supply began in March. Venezuela supplies roughly 20-30kbpd to Cuba, about half of 2020 levels, leaving roughly 2/3 of the country’s fuel needs to be acquired otherwise. Govt exceeded its fuel import budget in Q1 as a result of higher fuel prices. This situation in conjunction with the deficit in power generation will temper output as outages and power cuts continue. Inflation remains high at 23% in Feb 2022, according to official figures, though slower than the 55% reported in Feb 2021.
Bank of Guyana projects growth of 47.5% in 2022, with non-oil GDP up 7.7%. The World Bank forecasts 49.7% growth in 2022 and 25% in 2023. The IMF forecasts 47.2% growth in 2022, 34.5% growth in 2023, and 3.7% average to 2027.
Inflation reached 62% y/y in Feb 2022, though m/m it fell to 1.7%, based on the SRD’s improving stability. Food prices rose 68% y/y and Utility prices 122%.
Trinidad & Tobago
The energy sector grew in Q4 2021 as prices began to rise, though the non-energy sector remained weak. The IMF forecasts growth of 5.5% in 2022, 3% in 2023, then averaging 1% to 2027. “We also expect a balance of payments crisis to develop this year, absent significant reforms and economic recovery,” Dukharan said in the report.
By Aaron Simonsky. © Energy Analytics Institute (EAI). All Rights Reserved.