How the War in Ukraine Could Empower Maduro

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(Foreign Policy, 25.Feb.2022) — The highlights this week: how the war in Ukraine could prolong Venezuela’s political crisis, Colombia decriminalizes abortion, and a Mexican marathoner completes a cross-country journey.

When Anti-Imperialism Meets Noninterference

In the weeks before Russia began its large-scale invasion of Ukraine this Thursday, two Latin American presidents, Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil and Alberto Fernández of Argentina, made pilgrimages to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The visits underscored the enduring political ties between Russia and several countries in the region.

Fernández said Argentina could become Russia’s “front door to the region,” while Bolsonaro voiced vague “solidarity” with Russia, prompting a rain of criticism from Washington that the leaders were not joining international efforts to condemn Russian preparations for military action in Ukraine.

Now that a full-blown Russian invasion is underway, Fernández’s administration has changed its tune. His spokesperson issued a statement Thursday calling for a halt to Russian military action.

While Bolsonaro did not immediately comment, Brazil’s foreign ministry called for a suspension of Russian hostilities, and Brazilian Vice President Hamilton Mourão said Western military force should be used to aid Ukraine. Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, said in his morning press conference that he opposed the war but did not condemn Russia by name.

Latin American countries have often been hesitant to criticize human rights violations committed by allies, claiming the principle of noninterference in other countries’ internal affairs. But for Argentina, another tenet seems to have overridden that principle in the last 48 hours: that of anti-imperialism. While all Latin American countries have colonial pasts, Argentina claims it battled a more recent imperial incursion during the 1982 Falklands War against the United Kingdom.

Many other Latin American leaders—including the presidents of Uruguay, Colombia, and Ecuador, as well as the president-elect of Chile—condemned Putin’s actions. Meanwhile, some foreign ministries—such as those of Peru and Bolivia—called for general de-escalation in more lukewarm statements.

But it’s among Russia’s closest allies in the region—Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua—where the new war may bring its most dramatic effects. These countries have for years leaned on Russian financial support while enduring heavy U.S. sanctions. Russia has provided them with foreign aid, loans, and arms sales, and, in the case of Venezuela, purchased its oil exports.

The intensity of these economic ties cuts a contrast with those enjoyed by the likes of Brazil and Argentina. Though these countries have flaunted their political links to Moscow in efforts to gain more international influence, they export less than 1 percent of their goods to Russia.

While the leaders of Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua did not immediately comment on Thursday’s invasion, they did speak up earlier in the week—when Russia ordered troops into the Ukrainian separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk after declaring them independent republics. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro declared “full support” for Russia, and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega praised Putin’s move. Cuba’s foreign affairs ministry called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis and said Russia had the right to defend itself.

Maduro’s decisive stance may sink the possibility of progress in internationally backed negotiations that began last year between his government and Venezuela’s political opposition in Mexico City. The talks could have led to some U.S. sanctions relief for Venezuela in exchange for Maduro making guarantees about the conditions for upcoming presidential elections in 2024. Maduro himself had called off the talks last October, and Washington urged him to rejoin last week.

That pathway now looks far narrower as Russia’s schism with the West—and the United States in particular—deepens.

Meanwhile, rapidly rising oil prices linked to the war in Ukraine put Venezuela, an OPEC member with the world’s largest oil reserves, in a stronger financial position. OPEC has resisted acting to lower prices even as they have skyrocketed in recent days. This means that, in the short term, Maduro needs sanctions relief from the United States even less.

Rising oil prices may benefit Maduro, but their otherwise adverse effects will be felt across Latin America, likely boosting inflation levels that are already among the highest experienced by any world region.

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By Catherine Osborn, the writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly Latin America Brief. 

PHOTO CAPTION: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on Dec. 5, 2018. Getty Images

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