(The Washington Post, 27.Aug.2024) — A month ago, Venezuela’s opposition nurtured a cautious hope. A national election seemed to present a genuine chance to oust the entrenched autocratic regime of President Nicolás Maduro. Even as Maduro and his allies stacked the odds against their opponents, disqualifying top candidates and wielding the machinery of the state to suppress their ability to campaign, pollsters and experts suggested the opposition looked certain to win more votes at the ballot box than the desperately unpopular Maduro.
It seems the opposition did win the election July 28 — and handily. A Washington Post analysis of voting machine receipts collected by opposition poll watchers indicated that Maduro’s principal challenger, Edmundo González, probably defeated the demagogic incumbent by a 2-to-1 margin. But the regime’s electoral authorities declared Maduro’s victory by midnight on election day and moved in the days thereafter to consolidate control. Last week, the country’s Supreme Court, stacked with Maduro loyalists, confirmed the result.
That certification came despite the government so far refusing to release the official tallies of votes — a clear sign, critics say, of malfeasance. Independent election observers, including the Carter Center and a panel of U.N. experts, have cast doubt on the legitimacy of the result. Maduro has circled the wagons, denouncing foreign plots against both his rule and the progress of the “Bolivarian revolution” instituted by his socialist predecessor, the late Hugo Chávez.
This week, one of the members of the government’s National Electoral Council denounced the “grave lack of transparency and veracity” in the body’s own reporting of election results. Juan Carlos Delpino, an opposition-aligned member of the body, posted on social media his dismay about what’s transpired. “I deeply regret that the results don’t serve the Venezuelan people, that they don’t help resolve our differences or promote national unity but instead fuel doubts in the majority of Venezuelans and the international community,” Delpino wrote.
Many countries in the West and in Venezuela’s neighborhood, including erstwhile left-leaning allies in Brazil and Colombia, refused to recognize Maduro’s dubious victory and are calling on Caracas to put forward data proving its claims. Over the weekend, Josep Borrell, the European Union’s top diplomat, said in a statement that “only complete and independently verifiable results will be accepted and recognized.” The United States, for its part, recognized González as the election’s victor.
This is cold comfort for the Venezuelan opposition and countless ordinary Venezuelans who want change. Maduro’s regime has embarked on a crackdown on dissent, rounding up protesters and subjecting opposition leaders and activists to abuse, intimidation and threats of arrest. González has not been seen publicly in weeks, though he has issued appeals to the people and statements on social media. He is expected to skip a summons from the country’s attorney general to testify next week in a legal case the regime is still shaping against opposition leaders.
Meanwhile, the regime’s security apparatus has swept up hundreds of protesters, including dozens of minors, in a relentless show of force that also killed 24 people, according to a local rights groups. “Security forces are detaining people at a speed we had not seen in Venezuela’s recent history, even during the brutal repression in 2014 and 2017,” said Juanita Goebertus, Americas director for Human Rights Watch, to my colleagues. “This is not just a clampdown on demonstrators. It’s a full witch hunt against anyone who dares criticize the government.”
The opposition and its supporters have stood courageously, but risk being muffled by the regime’s suppression. “A paralysis of fear is slowly taking hold,” a report noted this week in Spanish daily El Pais. “Arbitrary arrests and selective police harassment have had an effect, and many people are thinking twice about calling for a demonstration.”
In power for more than a decade, Maduro has presided over the immiseration of what was once one of Latin America’s wealthiest nations. The country’s huge oil industry has cratered through kleptocratic avarice and statist incompetence, while U.S. sanctions have exacted their own bitter toll. Some 8 million Venezuelans have been forced to leave the country in an exodus that eclipses the Syrian refugee crisis. The scale of the calamity means that even someone like Brazilian President Luis Inacio “Lula” da Silva, a close ally of the late Chávez, has cast doubts on Maduro’s win and called for fresh elections.
The idea of repeating the election has been rejected by both Maduro and the opposition. The former is satisfied by its position, while the latter believes that there’s no way Maduro and his allies can be trusted to administer a fair vote after the chicanery of the past month. In an interview with Reuters this week, María Corina Machado — the chief opposition leader who Maduro had disqualified ahead of the presidential vote — said a combination of domestic protests and international pressure would force Maduro out.
“It is the coordination between internal and external forces which will achieve change,” Machado, who has appeared at some marches but is otherwise in hiding, told the news agency via a video call. “What does Maduro have left today? A very reduced group of high-ranking soldiers, the control of magistrates from the (top court) and arms … he is sowing fear.”
The Biden administration and its counterparts in Latin America are trying to find pathways for negotiations that could see Maduro exit power on generous terms. To get there, it would require more cracks opening within the embattled regime.
“Some power brokers in Maduro’s coalition may wonder if this chaos is what they signed up for, which may present the biggest loyalty test that the leader has faced in years,” Geoff Ramsey and Jason Marczak wrote of the Atlantic Council. “Many elites are weary of the prospect of Maduro assuming another illegitimate term, especially if it means six more years of repression, sanctions, and economic catastrophe. The White House has an opening to liaise with such figures, making sure that ruling party elites and the military understand the potential benefits of a democratic transition.”
In a letter to the Venezuelan opposition leaders disclosed to the Miami Herald this week, Vice President Kamala Harris said the regime’s militarized response to the protests would “only deepen the crisis” and expressed her resolve “to encourage the parties in Venezuela to begin discussions on a respectful, peaceful handover of power.”
Given all the evidence of the moment, such an outcome remains distant, if not fanciful. Maduro has survived previous rounds of crisis and mass protest.
“The Venezuelan president’s stalling tactics over the past decade have been extraordinarily successful,” Oliver Stuenkel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote. “Maduro has continuously moved goal posts, delayed negotiations, and convinced observers that he is willing to hold to power at all costs, even if that involves prolonging his country’s economic decline and large-scale emigration. Paradoxically, his government benefits from emigration, as it reduces the opposition’s capacity to mobilize and continuously draw crowds.”
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By Ishaan Tharoor with Kelsey Baker
