(East Daley, 5.Nov.2024) — Haynesville production has fallen over 3 Bcf/d so far in 2024 in a weak natural gas market, dragging volumes down on many of the largest gathering systems. But DT Midstream (DTM) so far has resisted the Haynesville slump and is looking ahead to a new expansion of its LEAP gathering system.
According to East Daley’s ArkLaTex Basin forecast, production in the Haynesville has declined from 16.7 Bcf/d in 1Q:24 to just 13.5 Bcf/d in 3Q:24. Weak gas prices, steep rig cuts and deferred well completions have led to lower volumes from the largest producers. Accordingly, many of the largest gathering systems in Louisiana and East Texas have seen serious declines as well. Flow samples for Energy Transfer’s (ET) system are down over 1 Bcf/d since 1Q24, while Williams’ (WMB) samples are down 600 MMcf/d over the same period.
However, DTM’s Haynesville assets have held firm this year. In its latest 3Q24 earnings, DTM reported that Blue Union gathered volumes declined only 10 MMcf/d on average vs 1Q24.
In the 3Q update, management also announced that LEAP’s Phase 4 expansion has reached a final investment decision (FID). The latest expansion of the southwestern Louisiana gathering system will raise DTM’s Haynesville egress capacity from 1.9 to 2.1 Bcf/d by mid-2026.
According to pipeline data monitored by East Daley, LEAP’s interstate flow sample has actually declined by ~350 MMcf/d since 1Q24, but only because volumes have shifted to TC Energy’s (TRP) Gillis Access project (see figure). The Gillis Access project was placed in service in March ’24. LEAP has a 1 Bcf/d interconnect with TRP’s intrastate pipeline and has supplied ~350 MMcf/d to that line since June ’24.
Currently, Gillis Access ships volumes from LEAP over to TRP’s other Louisiana interstate lines, mostly to ANR Pipeline, but the line also connects with Columbia Gulf. We expect this supply chain eventually will allow Plaquemines LNG to source Haynesville gas from DTM via Columbia Gulf’s East Lateral Xpress expansion (in-service date expected early 2025).
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