Pemex Guarantees Production from 2025-2030 with Trion, Zama, Other Projects -

HOUSTON, TEXAS (Pietro D. Pitts and Fidencio Casillas, Energy Analytics Institute, 15.Feb.2025) — State-owned Petróleos Mexicanos‘ overall work plan during 2025-2030 includes guaranteeing greater crude oil and natural gas production as well as the supply of fuels (gasoline), petrochemicals and fertilizers, Mexico’s Energy Secretariat (Sener) Luz Elena González Escobar and Pemex general director Víctor Rodríguez Padilla said during their participations in the 12 Feb. 2025 mañanera with Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo.

González said Sener will seek recovery of Mexico’s hydrocarbon sector, which she said was abandoned during the recent “neoliberal” period and especially the 2013 energy reform, which turned Pemex “into the most indebted oil company in the world.”

“Our commitment — as the president has said from the beginning — is to generate shared well-being for all. We will continue working as we have been doing, throughout the energy sector, in a coordinated way,” González said.

For his part, Padilla said that with the constitutional reform Pemex had returned to its main task of serving the people.

As part of Pemex’ main role, Padilla said 6 core functions will be implemented under his watch: 1) productive: take advantage of natural resources with rationality, efficiency and long-term vision; 2) energy security: guarantee the supply of gasoline and other fuels at the lowest possible price; 3) well-being: support social programs and help the communities where Pemex works; 4) economic: provide resources to the public treasury to finance government and public works programs; 5) environmental: operate with responsibility and care for the natural environment; and 6) energy transition: incorporate more clean energy projects to mitigate emissions.

As a result, Padilla said Mexico City-based Pemex’ 6 core functions will give way to establishment of 7 strategic lines between 2025-2030 and as follows:

Focused exploration

Pemex will focus on increasing its hydrocarbon reserves. The aim is to have enough reserves to cover at least 10 years of assured consumption. In other words, the company looks to boost its reserves-to-production or R/P ratio to at least 10 years.

To this end, Pemex looks to boost reserves through the drilling of 269 exploratory wells in 6 strategic projects — Integral Veracruz, Cuichapa, Comalcalco, Uchukil, Chalabil, and Campeche Oriente. These projects are located in Mexico’s Gulf of Mexico and in the states of Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco and Campeche.

Pemex aims to acquire 38,000km of seismic studies with geological information to identify where to conduct its exploratory drilling campaign. The company looks to allocate MXN220bn Mexican pesos to exploration efforts.

With these actions, Pemex hopes to incorporate over 2 bn bbls of oil that will be ready to move into the production phase.

Sustainable production

During the Sheinbaum sexenio or 6-year period, Pemex will produce no more than 1.8 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of oil, Padilla said. Importantly, the figure includes liquids and condensates. The company looks to allocate MNX1.6bn pesos in investments, while income to be generated from this production is estimated at MXN5bn pesos.

As part of actions to maintain production, an estimated 2,036 wells will be drilled, while around 1,300 major well repairs or workovers will be conducted, Padilla said.

Importantly, Padilla said 12 strategic projects will contribute 61% to the production profile. These projects include the following: 1) Burgos; 2) Trion (deep-water development that partners Woodside Energy and Pemex; 3) Lakach; 4) Ixachi; 5) Zama (offshore development that partners Talos Energy, Pemex, Harbour Energy, Grupo Carso); 6) Yaxché; 7) Bakte; 8) Tekel; 9) Kayab-Pit; 10) Ayatsil; 11) Mallob; and 12) Cantarell.

Cantarell, although a mature field, continues to produce and contribute to Pemex’ total production profile, Padilla said.

Pemex is also eyeing increasing its gas production to over 5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) with the drilling of around 1,058 wells, while around 970 major well repairs or workovers will be conducted.

In the gas space, Pemex will focus on 4 strategic projects — Burgos, Ixachi, Quesqui, and Bakte — where investments are estimated at MXN238bn pesos. Income to be generated from these projects is estimated at MXN1.9bn pesos.

“Gas is the energy that is most consumed in Mexico. And we need to produce more to cover rising gas demand to support economic growth and to reduce imports,” Padilla said.

Pemex will also focus on reducing the amount of gas it burns. This also includes reducing fugitive methane emissions. That’s to say, Pemex looks to reduce its flaring and vented gas volumes, according to Padilla.

However, Padilla didn’t mention 5 proposed liquefaction projects on Mexico’s Pacific Coast that would use Permian feedgas and have a processing capacity of 59.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). Of the 5 projects, only Sempra Infrastructure‘s Energia Costa Azul (ECA) has reached a final investment decision (FID).

Self-sufficient refining

In the refining space, Pemex will focus on auto-sufficiency in the production of gasoline, diesel and turbosine.

Padilla said there would be no gasolinazos or significant increases in the price of gasoline in the domestic market, which he said would be supplied by Pemex and its partners.

Padillas also reiterated earlier statements from Sheinbaum that gasoline prices in Mexico will not surpass the MXN24 pesos per liter mark ($1.18 per liter or around $4.48 per gallon based on Energy Analytics Institute calculations).

In order to cap gasoline prices, Padilla said Pemex will focus on rehabilitation of its 6 refineries in the domestic market. To this end, estimated investments in the refining space will reach MXN105bn pesos.

Padilla said the Tula and Salina Cruz refineries would come into operation between 2025 and 2026, while efforts at the Olmeca refinery “Dos Bocas” and the Deer Park in Texas refinery will focus on achieving maximum capacity at both.

Fertilizers and petrochemicals

In the fertilizer space, Padilla said the plan is to boost production to supply domestic demand and not depend on costly imports. To this end, Pemex eyes investments of MXN8bn pesos.

Importantly, Pemex will focus on the rehabilitation of the Lázaro Cárdenas plant in the state of Michoacán, and construction of a new complex in the state of Veracruz. The company will also focus on increasing production of phosphate fertilizers by 1.5 million tons per year and urea by 1.6 million tons per year.

In the petrochemical space, Pemex will focus on recuperation of the sector with an investment of MXN20bn pesos to reactivate the Cangrejera complex and the production capacity of the Morelos and Cangrejera complexes, which produce ethane derivatives. Pemex will also focus on modernization of the Escolúan petrochemical complex to produce 750,000 tons per year of urea.

Pemex also looks to produce 30,000 b/d of gasoline components and 330,000 tons of aromatic per year. In terms of ethylene oxide and polyethylenes, the company eyes production of 250,000 tons per year and 690,000 tons per year, respectively.

Safety and logistics

In the logistics space, Pemex will focus on reinforcing security in the storage, transport and distribution of fuels with continued coordination with the Security Cabinet of the government of Mexico.

Padilla said Pemex had recuperated 7 million liters of stolen fuel with an estimated value of MXN128mn pesos. As part of operations, over 320 persons have been detained, while some 4,252 illegal connections were said to have been discovered across Mexico.

Clean energy

In the clean energy space, Padilla said the company will boost its actions in the circular economy to reuse, recycle and reduce waste and reduce Pemex’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Additionally, Padilla said Pemex Energía will be launched with projects oriented to the energy transition. Padilla didn’t provide details around timing for the launch.

Financing

And finally in the financial space, Padilla said the Pemex will provide all the resources it needed through income generated by the company.

Padilla said coordination between Pemex, Sener and the Treasury and Public Credit opened the door for partial payments to Pemex suppliers in late-Dec. 2024. Some additional and final payments are slated to be made to suppliers sometime during the first-quarter 2025, he said.

Lastly, in 2025, the federation government’s expenditure budget is allocating MXN136bn pesos for debt amortization, Padilla said.