HOUSTON, TEXAS (Energy Analytics Institute, 5.Feb.2025) — TotalEnergies expects the gas market to remain tense in 2025 owing to “very limited expected capacity additions related to delays of some projects.”
TotalEnergies expects its liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales to exceed 40 million tonnes (Mt) in 2025, up slightly compared to 39.8 Mt in 2024. This compares to 44.3 Mt in 2023, according to data published on 5 Feb. 2025 in TotalEnergies’ fourth-quarter 2024 (4Q:24) financial press release.
TotalEnergies said European gas prices increased at the end of 2024. The Paris-based company also said that forward markets currently expect prices to exceed $13/MMbtu in the 1Q:25, “supported by high winter consumption and rapid inventory declines in Europe in the context of the interruption of Russian imports via Ukraine.”
Resultantly, owing to the evolution of commodity (oil and gas) prices in recent months and the lag effect on price formulas, TotalEnergies foresees its average LNG selling price will exceed $10/MMbtu in the 1Q:25.
Brent prices, hydrocarbon production
Brent prices remain volatile in the range of $70/bbl and $80/bbl at the start of 2025. This is supported by the willingness of OPEC+ countries to balance oil markets that are facing strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries (US, Guyana, Brazil), TotalEnergies said in the release.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.1 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2025, up from a 0.8 MMb/d increase in 2024.
TotalEnergies expects its hydrocarbon production to grow over 3% in 2025, benefiting from the ramp-up of 2024 start-ups and production start-ups, notably Ballymore in the Gulf of Mexico and Mero-4 in Brazil. TotalEnergies’ total hydrocarbon production averaged 2.434 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboe/d) in 2024. This compares to 2.483 MMboe/d in 2023.
In specific, TotalEnergies expects hydrocarbon production of between 2.5-2.55 MMboe/d in 2025 owing to the ramp-up of 2024 start-ups and the closing of the acquisitions of SapuraOMV in Malaysia and of interests in the Eagle Ford shale gas play in Texas that happened in the 4Q:24, the company said.
In the Integrated Power space, TotalEnergies looks to expand in 2025 supported by electricity production growth of over 20% to reach an annual net electricity generation of more than 50 TWh. Cash flow before working capital (CFFO) is expected to be in the range of $2.5bn-$3bn in 2025.
“By combining hydrocarbon and electricity production growth, the company expects to increase energy production by 5% in 2025. Integrated Power production will represent 10% of hydrocarbon production,” TotalEnergies said.
TotalEnergies foresees net investments of $17bn-$17.5bn in 2025, of which $4.5bn is dedicated to low carbon energies, mostly Integrated Power. Organic investments are forecast at $17bn, focused on core growth projects to achieve 2030 production targets. TotalEnergies reiterated that the forecast is down compared to guidance of $18bn presented during the Strategy & Outlook in Oct. 2024.
RELATED: TotalEnergies Proposes €3.22/share Dividend Fiscal Year 2024
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