HOUSTON, TEXAS (Editors at Energy Analytics Institute, 17.Jan.2025) — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth at 3.3% both in 2025 and 2026, below the historical (2000–2019) average of 3.7%. Within Latin America and the Caribbean, Brazil is projected to grow 2.2% in both 2025 and 2026, while Mexico, the US’ main trade partner, is projected to grow 1.4% in 2025 and 2% in 2026.
The forecast for 2025 is broadly unchanged from what IMF published in its October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This, owing to an upward revision in the US offsetting downward revisions in other major economies.

Global headline inflation is projects to fall to 4.2% in 2025 and to 3.5% in 2026, converging back to target earlier in advanced economies than in emerging market and developing economies.
Medium-term risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside, while the near-term outlook is characterized by divergent risks, the IMF said.
“Upside risks could lift already-robust growth in the US in the short run, whereas risks in other countries are on the downside amid elevated policy uncertainty,” the IMF said in their report. “Policy-generated disruptions to the ongoing disinflation process could interrupt the pivot to easing monetary policy, with implications for fiscal sustainability and financial stability. Managing these risks requires a keen policy focus on balancing trade-offs between inflation and real activity, rebuilding buffers, and lifting medium-term growth prospects through stepped-up structural reforms as well as stronger multilateral rules and cooperation.”
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By Editors at Energy Analytics Institute. © 2025 Energy Analytics Institute (EAI). All Rights Reserved.