(East Daley, 13.Sept.2024) — As the industry cleans up from Hurricane Francine, East Daley is watching Plaquemines LNG closely in southeastern Louisiana. Venture Global recently received its first LNG vessel – only this ship docked to deliver LNG, rather than export it. The company is using a cooldown cargo instead of pipeline gas during the commissioning phase, potentially shortening the time before Plaquemines ramps to first exports.
EDA tracks Plaquemines as the next LNG project to start in the Macro Supply & Demand Forecast and Southeast Gulf Supply & Demand Report. An LNG tanker from Norway arrived at the Louisiana terminal on 26 Aug. 2024, according to ship tracking services.
Cooldown cargoes are used to chill LNG tanks prior to liquefaction, allowing initial LNG production to be stored without excessive initial boiloff. Without a cooldown cargo, LNG tanks must be cooled using gas liquefied at the facility. This is a significantly slower process because the initial volume of produced LNG is far smaller than what can be immediately transferred into the tanks from a cargo.
Theoretically, this means Plaquemines LNG can begin exporting cargoes and ramp to full capacity much sooner. Venture Global did not use a cooldown cargo for its first LNG facility, Calcasieu Pass.
We can use the Calcasieu Pass timeline as guidance for when Plaquemines Phase 1 might start, given that the two projects are approximately the same size and use the same liquefaction technology. With pipeline feedgas, Calcasieu Pass reached 1.5 Bcf/d of gas intake approximately six months after it began the cooldown process (see figure). Note that, while Calcasieu Pass’s maximum intake eventually reached 1.6 Bcf/d, the final 100 MMcf/d of feedgas took an additional two months to fill. For comparison purposes here, we treat 1.5 Bcf/d as our benchmark for when the facility is “fully ramped.”
East Daley includes assumptions for demand from Plaquemines LNG in the Macro and Southeast Gulf balances. If we assume that Plaquemines LNG is able to ramp 30% faster using imported cargoes for cooldown, we should expect to see the facility take 1.5 Bcf/d as early as Jan. 2025.
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By Oren Pilant and Ian Heming
