(Energy Analytics Institute, 28.Oct.2024) — Assuming all the LNG export projects located in the Lower 48 that have taken a final investment decision (FID) and others expected to take FID go forward, the Lower 48 (including Mexican projects that utilize U.S. piped-gas) will have 28.5 Bcf/d of export capacity and roughly 25.7 Bcf/d of exports by Jan. 2030.
Should projects under review receive Department of Energy (DOE) approval and achieve FID, another 4 Bcf/d of export capacity could be in service by year-end 2030, East Daly Analytics said 28 Oct. 2024 in a research update.
“Therefore the DOE’s eventual decision has a major potential impact on our Macro Supply & Demand outlook by 2030,” East Daley said in the update.
East Daley categorizes export capacity into four categories: 1) existing, 2) FID projects, 3) expected FID projects with DOE approval, and 4) those still under DOE review.
The Colorado-based consultancy also provides two forecast lines: 1) a base case which does not include non-Free Trade Agreement (non-FTA) approved projects, and 2) a upside case that does include those projects still under review.
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