(Pietro D. Pitts, Energy Analytics Institute, 23.Dec.2024) — The directional movements of Venezuela’s economy in 2025 will depend on Washington’s new man in charge, Donald Trump. That when he takes office for a second term on 20 Jan. 2025.
Ecoanalítica managing partner Asdrúbal Oliveros told Venezuelan-based Petroguia that one negative decision could be drastic for the Venezuelan economy.
“If there are aggressive sanctions again and licenses are eliminated, we will see a contraction in the economy, and a drop in oil production of 30% and a drop in income of 40%, which will also cause an increase in inflation and devaluation expectations,” Petroguia reported, citing Oliveros.
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Economic projections for the Venezuelan economy will depend on whether Trump decides to maintain in effect the US Office of Foreign Assets Control or OFAC’s General License No. 41 (GL41), which favors US-based Chevron Corporation.
The license was initially issued to the US energy giant in Nov. 2022.
The two most relevant licenses are those of Chevron and India’s Reliance, Oliveros said.
“The first because it is responsible for 24% of Venezuela’s oil production and generates 26% of the currencies in the foreign exchange market, while the second – which is only commercial because [Reliance] has no operations in the country, but buys about 150,000 barrels a day,” Oliveros said.
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By Pietro D. Pitts reporting from Houston. © Energy Analytics Institute (EAI). All Rights Reserved.
