(International Energy Agency, 18.Oct.2024) — In Colombia in Jan. 2024 the government declared a national disaster situation for a period of 12 months due to the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which brought extreme drought and sizzling heatwaves.
While Colombia’s hydropower output decreased by over 25% y-o-y from Jan. through to Apr., gas-fired power plants ramped up their output by more than 164% y-o-y during the same period. Colombia met the additional gas demand requirements primarily by increasing its LNG imports, which rose fifteen-fold y-o-y during the Jan.-Apr. period.
As hydro falls short, gas powers Colombia through El Niño
From Oct. 2023 to Apr. 2024 Colombia faced a severe drought triggered by the El Niño phenomenon. As water levels in reservoirs plummeted, hydropower output – typically providing around 70% of Colombia’s electricity – declined sharply, forcing the country to rely more heavily on thermal power plants to meet the increased demand, driven largely by higher temperatures.
The World Meteorological Organization warned of the development of an El Niño event as early as Mar. 2023, which led Colombia to ramp up LNG imports by 370% or 0.82 bcm from April to December 2023 compared with the same period in 2022. Additionally, disruptions in Colombian gas company Canacol’s domestic gas production and treatment facilities in the Caribbean region added to the strain, pushing utilities to import more LNG to fulfil firm energy obligations. LNG imports peaked at a historical monthly high of 0.27 bcm in Sep. 2023, while natural gas reached its highest share of the electricity mix for that month (21.7%) as coal, even at its highest load factor, could not fully offset the hydro shortfall.
The situation worsened as rainfall remained well below average, particularly from January to mid-April 2024. Gas-fired power plants played a crucial role during this period, providing backup that helped maintain water reserves above the 27% critical level, the threshold below which the country would face its first electricity rationing in more than 30 years. Between Jan. and Apr. 2024 Colombia imported 1.1 bcm of LNG through the SPEC regasification terminal in Cartagena, accounting for nearly 30% of the facility’s total imports since it began operations in Dec. 2016. These imports, primarily from the United States and Trinidad and Tobago, were vital in managing the 2024 crisis.
Despite these efforts, including increased coal-fired power generation, halting electricity exports to Ecuador and implementing water rationing, reservoir levels dipped below 29% in mid-April 2024, approaching the critical threshold. Consequently, on 15 Apr. the Minister of Energy and Mines, Andrés Camacho, ordered all Colombian thermal power plants to operate at maximum capacity every day. Gas-fired power generation surged to an average of 65 GWh per day in Apr. 2024, quadrupling the previous Apr.’s output. During this time, hydropower generation fell by 40%, reaching its lowest share of the electricity mix since March 2016 (49.2%). The crisis came to a swift end with abundant rains in late April, which helped to replenish reservoir levels and stabilise the electricity supply.
With the Cartagena terminal working at full capacity (400 mcf/d) in April 2024, this episode of low hydro generation, high electricity demand and declining domestic gas production, coupled with limited coal-fired capacity, raised concerns about a potential powerdemand supply gap of 4-5 TWh by 2027-2028. The Colombian gas industry has underscored the need for greater market flexibility, increased investment in domestic production, and expanded regasification and transport infrastructure to ensure the country’s gas supply in the coming years.
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