BOGOTÁ, COLOMBIA (By Ana Sanches, Editores Latin Petroleum, 11.Oct.2026, Words: 273) — The trajectory of Argentine country risk in recent weeks has been clear.
On 25 Sep. 2026, the indicator closed at 609 basis points. On 28 Sep. it rose 32 more units, to 641 points, and during the round it moved between 641 and 642, according to data from Rava Bursátil.
The bottom of the year had been 402 points on 10 Jul., just a few weeks before, LaRed21 reported on 11 Oct. 2026.
The increase of more than 50% in just over 2 months coincided with 12 consecutive rounds of deterioration, something that had not been recorded since Dec. 2025, when the indicator closed at 647 points.
The correlation in economic activity did not take long to appear. The INDEC reported that economic activity fell a seasonally adjusted 2.9% in Jul. compared to Jun., the steepest monthly contraction since April 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic restrictions. In the year-on-year comparison, the decline was 1.4%.
JP Morgan reacted immediately. It reduced its 2026 growth forecast from 2.7% to 1.5% and projected a 4% annualized contraction in the third quarter.
If the data for Aug. and Sep. confirm this trend, the Argentine economy would accumulate 2 consecutive quarters of decline, the technical threshold that is considered recession.
Analysts Lucila Barbeito and Diego Pereira had anticipated weak data, but acknowledged the INDEC number “significantly exceeded our forecast.”
The Jul. activity level was 4.5% below the Mar. maximum, the daily said.
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By Ana Sanches reporting from Bogotá. © 1999-2026 Energy Analytics Institute (EAI) and its 100% owned Venezuelan affiliate Editores Latin Petroleum CA. All Rights Reserved.
