Rystad Forecasts 300,000 b/d Drop in Venezuelan Oil Production with Chevron Exit

PANAMA CITY, PANAMA (Editors at Energy Analytics Institute, 10.Mar.2025) — The 27 Feb. 2025 decision by the US to end Chevron Corporation‘s license in Venezuela could result in loss of around 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) by year-end 2025, according to Rystad Energy.

That’s about 30% of Venezuela’s production of 1,031 thousand (Mb/d) in Jan. 2025, Rystad analyst Avnika Pandita said 10 Mar. 2025 in a post on social media.

“This is driven by the exit of Chevron as well as from expected cuts from other fields in the country driven by the exit of Chevron.,” Pandita said in the post.

Rystad further expects the volumes from the Chevron operated fields to be significantly impacted by the company’s departure, which will force state-owned PDVSA to address serious challenges such as the loss of diluents coming from the US and bearing the operational costs that Chevron was earlier bearing.

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“Looking ahead to the future of the excess barrels the US will no longer import; we believe these barrels will not disappear from the market altogether and could head to mainland China through the so-called ‘darkfleet’ market, Pandita said.

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By Piero Stewart reporting from Panama City. © 2025 Energy Analytics Institute (EAI). All Rights Reserved.