(Pietro D. Pitts, Energy Analytics Institute, 9.Jan.2025) — Not even crude oil prices down to $35/bbl will impact the ability of 4 projects offshore Guyana to produce positive returns.
To be more exact, the first 4 projects in the prolific Stabroek Block being developed by operator ExxonMobil Corporation, which leads a consortium that includes Hess Corporation and CNOOC, have an average breakeven oil price of $30.25/bbl.
Indeed, this is world class especially considering the water depths of between 1,500m-2,000m.
RELATED: Exxon-led Consortium Offshore Guyana Brings Money, Builds Production
Details of the 4 projects or developments are summarized here:
First development: Liza Phase 1
Liza Phase 1 was discovered in 2015 and first oil was achieved in Dec. 2019. The project uses the Liza Destiny floating, production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel.
—Breakeven: $35/bbl
—FPSO oil capacity: 140,000 b/d
—Resources (MMbbls): 500
—Reservoirs developed: 1
—Development wells: 17
—Flowlines: 30km
—Risers: 6
—Umbilicals: 1
—Installation campaigns: 1
—FID: $4.4bn
Second development: Liza Phase 2
Liza Phase 2 was discovered in 2015 and first oil was achieved in Feb. 2022. The project use the Liza Unity FPSO.
—Breakeven: $25/bbl
—FPSO oil capacity: 220,000 b/d
—Resources (MMbbls): 600
—Reservoirs developed: 5
—Development wells: 30
—Flowlines: 80km
—Risers: 10
—Umbilicals: 2
—Installation campaigns: 2
—FID: $6.0bn
Third development: Payara
Payara was discovered in 2017 and first oil was achieved in Nov. 2023. The project uses the Prosperity FPSO.
—Breakeven: $32/bbl
—FPSO oil capacity: 220,000 b/d
—Resources (MMbbls): 600
—Reservoirs developed: 9
—Development wells: 41
—Flowlines: 145km
—Risers: 11
—Umbilicals: 3
—Installation campaigns: 3
—FID: $9.0bn
Fourth development: Yellowtail
Yellowtail was discovered in 2019 and first oil is anticipated in 2025. The project will use the One Guyana FPSO.
—Breakeven: $29/bbl
—FPSO oil capacity: 250,000 b/d
—Resources (MMbbls): 925
—Reservoirs developed: 7
—Development wells: 51
—Flowlines: 72km
—Risers: 11
—Umbilicals: 3
—Installation campaigns: 3
—FID: $10.0bn
Stabroek production by 2030
An ExxonMobil affiliate ExxonMobil Guyana Limited operates Stabroek with a 45% interest. Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd. has a 30% interest while CNOOC Petroleum Guyana Limited has the remaining 25% interest.
The first 3 projects — Liza Phase 1, Liza Phase 2 and Payara — were producing an average of just over 650,000 b/d in early-Nov. 2024, according to ExxonMobil.
And, the 3 company consortium envisions having at least 6 projects up and running by 2030.
The fifth project is Uaru. It will use the 250,000 b/d Errea Wittu FPSO and first oil is anticipated in 2026.
The sixth project is Whiptail. It will use the 250,000 b/d Jaguar FPSO and first oil is anticipated in 2027
By 2030, all 6 projects are expected to be online with a total gross production of 1.3 million b/d or MMb/d.
Thereafter, 2 other projects slated for Stabroek are in advanced planning stages.
The seventh project is Hammerhead. It will use a FPSO with a production capacity of between 120,000-180,000 b/d. First oil is anticipated in 2029 or thereabouts.
Extrapolating on the FID amounts for the first 6 projects, Hammerhead could have an FID price between $6.1bn-$9.1bn, based on estimates formulated by Energy Analytics Institute (EAI).
The eighth project is Longtail. It will use a FPSO with a production capacity of between 120,000-250,000 b/d. There is yet a date for first oil.
Again, extrapolating on the FID amounts for the first 6 projects, Longtail could have an FID price between $6.1bn-$12.7bn, based on EAI estimates.
____________________
By Pietro D. Pitts reporting from Houston. © 2025 Energy Analytics Institute (EAI). All Rights Reserved.
