(East Daley Analytics, 25.Oct.2024) — Kinder Morgan (KMI) has launched a binding open season for Trident Intrastate Pipeline, a new project designed to deliver up to 2.8 Bcf/d of gas from the Katy hub to the Port Arthur area near the Texas-Louisiana border. With Golden Pass LNG on board as a shipper, Trident could alleviate oversupply risk as more Permian gas is pushed to the Texas coast.
KMI started the open season on 14 Oct. seeking binding commitments for the Trident project. The company is targeting in-service by Feb. 2027. Trident should help move natural gas from a saturated South Texas market as the Matterhorn and Blackcomb pipelines bring in up to 5.0 Bcf/d of incremental Permian supply by 2027.
East Daley Analytics forecasts South Texas gas flows in the Houston Ship Channel Supply & Demand Report. Pipelines in the Port Arthur area have capacity to move ~7.8 Bcf/d and can pull in as much as 8.8 Bcf/d during the winter months, when LNG production peaks at Gulf Coast facilities. EDA forecasts up to 4.7 Bcf/d of incremental LNG demand through YE:27 from the Golden Pass and Port Arthur LNG.
Following the start of the KMI open season, Golden Pass LNG (2.7 Bcf/d capacity) announced it had signed up for capacity on Trident. Golden Pass currently has commitments for 1.1 Bcf/d of firm transport (FT) out of the Haynesville on Energy Transfer’s (ET) Gulf Run Transmission and for 340 MMcf/d on Natural Gas Pipeline of America (NGPL). East Daley estimates that Golden Pass needs ~1.16 Bcf/d of additional FT to fully supply the facility’s liquefaction project, an unknown share of which will come from Trident.
Golden Pass Pipeline (GPPL), the line connecting the Golden Pass terminal to nearby pipes, has significant optionality in the Port Arthur area with interconnects to several inter- and intrastate systems. Assuming Trident doesn’t fully supply the remaining 1.16 Bcf/d, Golden Pass could underwrite an expansion on Gulf Run or pull in gas from Carthage on several Texas intrastate lines (KMI Tejas, Texas, and Houston Pipe Line).
In the Houston Ship Channel Supply & Demand Report, East Daley had called for new capacity between the Houston Ship Channel and Louisiana on Blackfin Pipeline, for eventual delivery to Venture Global’s CP Express pipeline and CP2 LNG project (see figure including the Trident project). However, it appears KMI has beaten WhiteWater Midstream to the punch, particularly since CP2 is delayed by the Department of Energy’s pause on non-free trade agreement (FTA) licenses.
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