(Chron.com, Jordan Blum, 11.Feb.2019) — Struggling Venezuela already is producing oil at a multi-decade low, but the socialist nation’s crude output could fall another 50 percent by 2020, further imperiling the economic plight of its industry and citizenry, according to a new report.
After producing 2.4 million barrels a day as recently as 2015, Venezuela already is down to 1.34 million barrels daily and those supplies are projected to fall below 1 million barrels a day by the end of 2019, according to the Norwegian research firm Rystad Energy.
That daily output could drop below 700,000 barrels a day during 2020 as the tailspin is expected to continue, Rystad said.
Embattled Venezuelan socialist President Nicolas Maduro is facing new oil sanctions from the White House as the Trump administration is now recognizing National Assembly leader Juan Guaido as the acting president of Venezuela. Maduro is reportedly reaching out to OPEC, of which Venezuela is a member, to actively oppose to the sanctions.
Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, is in the midst of an economic, geopolitical and humanitarian crisis that includes shortages of food, medicine and other necessities.
In a best-case scenario, Rystad said regime change coupled with the lifting of sanctions could help Venezuela stabilize production near 1 million barrels a day and keep the plunge from continuing further.
Venezuela has relied on U.S. exports of crude products to dilute its heavy-grade crude oil to make it marketable. At the same time, Gulf Coast refineries in the U.S. have long imported the heavier Venezuelan crude that they are designed to process.
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