(Argus, 24.Sep.2019) — Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido’s constitutional claim to the Opec country’s interim presidency could be undermined by today’s tumultuous return of the governing United Socialist Party (PSUV) to the National Assembly.
Over 50 elected PSUV deputies entered the legislative chamber this morning for the first time since April 2017, sparking hours of heated debate with the opposition coalition in which both sides repeatedly accused each other of treason, corruption, political illegitimacy and constitutional violations.
President Nicolas Maduro, whom most Western countries no longer recognize as president, ordered his party’s legislative contingent to end their two-year boycott of the assembly as part of a strategy to neutralize his opponents. Last week Maduro launched a “dialogue” with four splinter parties that hold only eight seats in the 167-member legislature.
The mainstream opposition led by Guaido currently holds a qualified legislative majority equivalent to about 62.3pc of the assembly. But a two-thirds majority vote is required to approve significant measures such as naming new electoral authorities or restructuring the supreme court to end the Maduro government’s control.
Officials from the presidential palace and the PSUV officials tell Argus that the PSUV and fringe party allies will seek to divide the Guaido-led opposition and block legislation meant to challenge Maduro.
Procedurally, the Maduro-controlled supreme court must in theory reverse a March 2017 ruling that effectively revoked the National Assembly, and reinstate the parliamentary immunity of up to 25 opposition legislators, many of whom now live in exile, a Guaido aide tells Argus.
But a presidential palace official said the PSUV’s return to the assembly does not require any actions by judicial or electoral authorities absent an agreement with the opposition that recognizes Maduro’s legitimacy and disavows “Guaido’s self-declared unconstitutional usurpation of the presidency.”
The palace official said the PSUV deputies will seek to deprive Guaido of the votes he needs to be re-elected as assembly president in December. Under the 1999 constitution, Guaido would have to resign his acting presidency by 5 January 2020 if he is not re-elected assembly president in December for a second consecutive year.
During today’s boisterous session, a succession of PSUV deputies led by Pedro Carreno, a former military officer who is close to Maduro, accused the Guaido-led opposition of conspiring with the military to overthrow the government, supporting US sanctions that have crippled Venezuela’s economy, and stealing the country’s international assets and oil resources with Washington’s help.
Opposition legislators accused Maduro, his late predecessor Hugo Chavez and the PSUV of destroying the economy, forcing over 4.5mn Venezuelans to flee, engaging in systematic torture and drug trafficking, and harboring Colombian criminal groups.
Venezuela’s economy has plummeted in real terms by over 60pc since 2013, while oil production has plunged from 2.7mn b/d in 2013 to less than 750,000 b/d last month.
Oil for Food
Over the course of the day, Guaido briefly mentioned that the day’s agenda for discussion would include an oil-for-food initiative, a cause espoused by the fringe parties and rejected by the mainstream opposition as a ploy to perpetuate Maduro’s power. The matter was not debated.
In New York today, Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodriguez, who is close to deputy Henri Falcon of the small Avanzada Progresista party, launched “Oil for Venezuela,” a non-profit that promotes “apolitical, transparent and sustainable” solutions for Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis.
Rodriguez has told Argus that the proposal would alleviate Venezuelan suffering and safeguard against the flaws that undermined the Iraqi oil-for-food program in the early 2000s.
The launch coincided with a pro-Guaido diplomatic campaign on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
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