Mexico Oil Production to Reach 2.6 MMb/d by 2025: Lopez Obrador

(S&P Global Platts, Daniel Rodriguez, 11.Sep.2018) — Mexico’s President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Sunday he plans to focus on developing and exploring onshore and shallow water areas under the control of state oil company Pemex to boost the country’s oil production.

“We have a projection, and our plan is to have production of at least 2.6 million b/d by the end of the presidential term; additional production of 800,000 b/d,” Lopez Obrador said in webcast press conference.

Lopez Obrador was speaking to journalists after a meeting with Mexican drilling and oil service companies at Villahermosa in Tabasco.

Mexico’s production averaged 1.8 million b/d in July, down from an historical high of 3.4 million b/d in 2004, latest data from Mexico’s National Hydrocarbon Commission showed.

Lopez Obrador said the incoming administration plans to tender drilling contracts in December when his six-year term begins to develop Pemex’s shallow water and inland areas to boost oil production. “We are inviting all companies to participate in these tenders. However, we will have a preference over domestic contractors,” he added.

He said he planned to add Peso 75 billion ($3.9 billion) to Pemex’s exploration and production budget to boost drilling and thus raise output. The tenders will help Mexico reverse its production downtrend by the end of 2019, he added.

Mexico’s oil industry is at a crisis as a result of low public investment in the sector. Pemex in 2017 had an E&P capital expenditure budget of Peso 81.5 billion, down from Peso 222 billion in 2014, the company’s annual financial statements show. The cut in Pemex’s budget resulted in a significant decrease in drilling activity; it drilled 83 wells in 2017, compared with 705 in 2013.

Lopez Obrador blamed the previous administration for Pemex’s lower capital expenditure, claiming it was done on purpose amid expectations the private sector would offset lower activity from the state company. “It has been a complete failure, this wrongly named energy reform,” Lopez Obrador said

The president-elect has historically been an opponent of private participation in Mexico’s energy sector. His critics note Pemex’s spending cuts reflect lower global oil prices after 2014.

The president-elect neither mentioned the long-term nature of the energy sector nor the advances made by Eni at Amoca, PanAmerica with Hotchi and Talos with Zama, where peak production across the three fields could be above 250,000 b/d.

Analysts also point out that Lopez Obrador does not acknowledge that it has been a challenge for Mexico to replace production from the aging Cantarell super field, which produced 2.1 million b/d in 2003 and but 160,000 b/d in July.

Mexico won’t call for new hydrocarbon auction rounds until all 107 contracts awarded to date under the energy reform are reviewed for corruption, Lopez Obrador said.

“The majority aren’t working, there is no investment, but those 107 contracts don’t include all the oil regions in the country, just a fraction of Mexico’s hydrocarbon potential,” he added.

The president-elect did not indicate when this contract review process could conclude. Currently, Mexico’s National Hydrocarbon Commission is organizing two gas-rich auction rounds, which are expected to be awarded in February.

The commission postponed both auctions as well as a Pemex’s auction to farm out seven onshore clusters in southern Mexico from this summer until the coming year, citing a request from the industry for more time to analyze the areas as well as the opportunity to involve the incoming administration in the process.

Lopez Obrador said the state owns all of Mexico’s oil resources, and has greater control over areas that have not yet been assigned. “The greater majority of our oil potential is still under the control of Pemex,” he added.

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AMLO Pledges More Than $11 Bln for Refineries

(Reuters, 13.Aug.2018) – Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Monday his administration will invest more than $11 billion to boost refining capacity in order to curb growing fuel imports.

Lopez Obrador, who will take office on Dec. 1, told reporters his government plans to invest $2.6 billion to modernize existing domestic refineries owned and operated by national oil company Pemex, and spend another $8.4 billion to build a new one within three years.

The $8.4-billion figure is higher than a $6 billion estimate provided by a key energy advisor during the campaign.

Lopez Obrador, set to become Mexico’s first leftist president in decades, did not detail how the projects would be financed or whether private capital would be involved, but he has often said he will not raise taxes or grow government debt.

Mexico is among Latin America’s largest crude exporters, but is also the biggest importer of U.S. refined products. The country’s next president has pledged to lift refining capacity, which he says has declined due to corruption and neglect.

Pemex, formally known as Petroleos Mexicanos, has six domestic refineries with a total processing capacity of some 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), but the facilities are only operating at about 40 percent of capacity so far this year. Meanwhile, gasoline and diesel imports have sky-rocketed in recent months amid planned and unplanned refinery stoppages.

Pemex has posted losses in its refining division for years but Lopez Obrador aims to boost crude processing enough to halt imports within three years.

Lopez Obrador also said he plans to invest another $4 billion to drill new onshore and shallow-water oil wells in the states of Veracruz, Tabasco and Chiapas.

Pemex production has consistently declined in recent years to fall below 2 million bpd after hitting peak output of 3.4 million bpd in 2004.

President Enrique Pena Nieto passed a reform to open up Mexico’s state-run energy industry to private producers, which has led to a series of competitive auctions that have awarded more than 100 oil exploration and production contracts.

Lopez Obrador has said he will respect those contracts as long as an ongoing review does not find signs of corruption. He is widely expected to slow down the process of offering more contracts to private players.

Reporting by Ana Isabel Martinez; Editing by James Dalgleish

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Mexico’s Next President Promises Pemex Investment

(Bloomberg, Amy Stillman, 30.Jul.2018) – Mexico’s incoming president named a new chief executive officer for Pemex and promised government investment of 75 billion pesos ($4 billion) in the oil sector, in a bid to revive the state-owned oil company.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador tapped longtime political ally Octavio Romero Oropeza, who has no oil background, as the next CEO of Petroleos Mexicanos. Romero will take over when the new government comes in this December. The announcement came at an event in which the president-elect promised to boost crude output as part of a 175-billion-peso rescue plan for the industry. He said 49 billion pesos will be spent on refinery upgrades.

Romero, 59, was a government official during Lopez Obrador’s five-year term as the mayor of Mexico City from 2000 to 2005. He also shares the same birthplace as the leftist leader, the oil hub of Tabasco. Lopez Obrador has said he wants to to revitalize oil ghost towns there and build a new refinery near the port of Dos Bocas at a cost of 160 billion pesos.

For a career politician with a degree in agronomy, turning around the beleaguered oil company won’t be easy.

“It’s a political appointment for an entity whose debt represents about 14% of gross domestic product,” John Padilla, managing director of energy consultant IPD Latin America LLC, said in a phone interview. “Whether that’s going to give markets a lot of confidence at this stage, at a point when Pemex is in such a debilitated state, remains to be seen.”

Romero, who replaces Carlos Trevino, will inherit a mountain of debt — more than $100 billion — and oil production that is in free-fall. Pemex pumped 1.866 MMbbl of crude a day during the second quarter, its 13th consecutive decline compared to the same period in previous years. And even as oil prices rise, the company on Friday reported a 163-billion-peso loss, the worst quarterly result since 2016.

The company expects to average 1.9 MMbpd in the third quarter of the year and 1.95 MMbbl in the fourth quarter, Luis Ramos, deputy director of exploration and production at Pemex, said on a conference call with investors. Pemex’s proven and probable reserves have dropped by more than half since 2012, as older fields become depleted and the company fails to develop ones.

Refinery upgrades

Pemex’s refining business is in such poor condition, with aging units struggling to process less expensive heavier crudes, that it loses money if it raises output. The problem has created a reverse incentive to refine less and import more. The plants, which processed 22% less crude than last year at 704,000 bpd, operated at 43% of capacity between April and June, company data show.

Lopez Obrador, who won a landslide victory in national elections on July 1, has promised to change that. He said he will prioritize raising refinery output to full capacity in two years, and build the new refinery in Tabasco.

He also named Manuel Bartlett as head of the Federal Electricity Commission, Rocio Nahle to the post of energy minister and Alberto Montoya as deputy energy minister.

Under Lopez Obrador’s predecessor, international oil companies had recently been allowed to re-enter Mexico’s production areas after being banned for more than 70 years. The new president could suspend oil auctions and review contracts already awarded for signs of corruption. The National Hydrocarbons Commission said last week that an auction to develop seven onshore areas in partnership with Pemex will now be held on February 14, from October 31 previously. A competitive bid for over 40 onshore areas will take place the same day after being pushed back from September 27.

The company is also seeking to raise an additional $3 billion to $3.5 billion in debt before the end of the year “if market conditions are favorable,” Pemex CFO David Ruelas said on a conference call with investors. Pemex’s total debt was 2.07 trillion pesos as of June 30 an increase from 1.95 trillion pesos three months earlier.

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