(Trinidad Planning and Development Minister Camille Robinson-Regis, 25.Jan.2022) — It is my pleasure to address you at the Energy Chamber’s Caribbean Sustainable Energy Conference 2022 on the critically important global aspiration of achieving NetZero by 2050.
Even as we begin though, I want to take your minds back to Philosophy 101 – if a tree falls in the forest and there’s no one there to see it fall, did it make a sound? For many of us gathered here in this Conference, the year 2050, some 28 years away, might be a year we will not see, but we owe those who will be present, the opportunity to see and hear the tree fall, the opportunity to watch as many sunsets as we have watched, to take walks on the beaches as we have, and to live in communities that are as near pollution free as we can make it.
The challenge before us then is not whether we can achieve NetZero by 2050, but rather, how do we do that, given the peculiarities of each country, and the fact that we are all not starting from the same place. The challenge is how do we turn our ambition into reality. The challenge is how do we pursue that ambition and not allow the very people we are trying to save, become collateral damage.
Achieving NetZero is not only about science, it is about people and countries and governments, and the harsh though sometimes unwelcome reality, that we are all independent upon each other for our survival, and this survival is not rooted in the Darwinian theory of the fittest remaining alive, but rather they who could adapt the easiest to the changing circumstances.
The question of whether achieving NetZero by 2050 is a realistic option and realizable goal for Small Island Developing States like Trinidad and Tobago and the rest of the region, must also occupy our mind space.
The latest science as published by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the foremost scientific assessment body on climate change asserts that the evidence is unequivocal:
- The past seven years were Earth’s warmest on record “by a clear margin,” according to new research released in the last two weeks by the Copernicus Climate Change Service -a group affiliated with the European Union.
Ladies and gentlemen, the message is clear: We have a climate emergency that requires an equal response. The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole and the present state of many aspects of the climate system are unprecedented and inaction is not an option.
So, it is not a question of “can we” more than it is a question of “how to”.
Reaching net zero is no longer an aspiration; it is an imperative. However, this is not going to be without challenges.
The Glasgow Climate Pact which was the main political outcome of the 26th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, or COP 26 underscored the importance of this goal of achieving global warming of no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius and the importance of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. It set the tone to keep the world on track and “recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 relative to the 2010 level and to net zero around mid-century, as well as deep reductions in other greenhouse gases.”
Most significantly, is the direct and explicit reference to addressing the root cause of climate change – fossil fuels. It calls for the “phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”. Across the world, at the highest decision making levels, the importance of NetZero by 2050 is being advanced, and the world has been responding, particularly the players in the fossil fuel industry.
The business edition of The Economist of January 22, 2022, for example, pointed out that calls for the oil business to decarbonise are growing louder just about everywhere, and not merely from governments and environmentalists. Moody’s reckons that half of the $1.8 trillion dollars of global energy debt that it evaluates is held by asset managers and insurers that face increasing pressure on environmental, social and governance (ESG) fronts, notably the climate. An annual survey of 250 big institutional investors published on January 6th by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) found that more than four in five think it is important for companies to establish targets for long-term emissions reductions. Nearly as many “feel increased pressure” to apply green filters to their investments.
Even the International Energy Agency (IEA) which was formed in 1974, to coordinate a collective response to major disruptions in the supply of oil has embraced the message of the need for achieving NetZero by 2050. In 2021, the IEA developed a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector to achieve NetZero by 2050.
Dr. Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, notes in his foreword to the Roadmap that despite the current gap between rhetoric and reality on emissions, there are still pathways to reach net zero by 2050. The Roadmap calls for nothing less than a complete transformation of how the world produces, transports and consumes energy, and imposes on governments the requirement to significantly strengthen and successfully implement their energy and climate policies.
Further, the IEA says growth in renewable energy in 2021 is likely to be a record high amounting to 290 gigawatts of capacity, and that by 2026, it is expected that global capacity will increase by more than 60% from 2020 levels. This is equivalent to the current total global power capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear power combined. What is instructive is that this will be driven by both the developed and emerging global economies – China, US, Europe and India.
These global developments are curiously ironic for Trinidad and Tobago. On the one hand, achieving net zero and the objectives of the Paris Agreement mean that the costs of adverse climate impacts on small economies like Trinidad and Tobago will be minimised. On the other hand, as an oil and gas-based economy, the economic impacts of reducing revenue through reduced demand for fossil fuels can have serious impacts on the prospects for economic growth. Trinidad and Tobago as a carbon-intensive economy therefore also has an obligation to diversify and decarbonize its economy towards meeting obligations under the Paris Agreement.
So, what do we do? What are our options?
The Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago has acknowledged that the global energy transition to low carbon is inevitable and well underway in order to avoid catastrophic climate change, and that Trinidad and Tobago has to be part of that transition if it is to not be left behind, and therefore needs to get on board as a matter of urgency.
Trinidad and Tobago is fully committed to contributing towards global action to achieve this goal and the related goals of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. Congruent with the requirements of the Paris Agreement, Trinidad and Tobago has committed in its Nationally Determined Contribution (which is up to the year 2030) to a reduction in overall cumulative emissions from the three main emitting sectors (power generation, industry and transportation) by 15% by 2030 which, in absolute terms is an equivalent of one hundred and three million tonnes (103,000,000) of carbon dioxide equivalents or CO2-e. The estimated cost of meeting this objective is USD 2 billion, which is expected to be met partly through domestic funding and conditional or international financing, including through the Green Climate Fund.
In this regard, Trinidad and Tobago has also committed to unconditionally reduce its public transportation emissions by 30% or one million, seven hundred thousand tonnes (1,700,000) CO2e compared to 2013 levels by December 31, 2030. We have also recently completed technical work to validate the baselines used to develop the NDC, which as you well know by now, is derived from the country’s Carbon Reduction Strategy.
Based on this validation, and given the announcement by the Honourable Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago, Dr. Keith Rowley at the recently convened World Leader’s Summit at COP 26 in Glasgow, Trinidad and Tobago has increased its goal to having 30% use of renewable energy by the year 2030. This enhanced ambition will be reflected in a revised NDC currently being finalised by the Ministry of Planning and Development. This is a significant increase in ambition for the country towards the transition to sustainable energy.
Trinidad and Tobago can, and must rise to these challenges. Through cooperative approaches with the private sector, we believe that can not only manage the transition, but actually take advantage of the huge opportunities that are emerging for economic investment. The global energy transition towards low carbon development and climate neutrality has identified tremendous opportunities for economic growth and development through increased investments in clean technology, including renewable energy.
For example, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) has projected an estimated 23 trillion USD for climate investments in emerging markets by 2030. Trinidad and Tobago must therefore position itself to maximise these opportunities. Let me highlight one potent area of investment that is win-win for all. Investments in green hydrogen – the economy of the future – is a key example of how Trinidad and Tobago can maintain, if not increase its competitiveness in the petrochemical sector.
It is common knowledge that the European Green Deal is poised to implement Carbon Border Adjustment Measures or CBAM, which would be a tax on imports of goods depending on the carbon content of its raw materials and manufacturing processes. As the fourth largest exporter of fertilizers to the European Union, and a prolific user of so-called grey hydrogen extracted from natural gas -a fossil fuel, to manufacture ammonia, Trinidad and Tobago is therefore likely to attract a border carbon tax. Generating green hydrogen from water using renewable energy will not only reduce or exempt our products from such taxes but actually increase the prospects of fetching premium international prices.
Utilizing this method not only preserves some of our petrochemical industries, but also can open up other areas of business such as hydrogen as a shipping fuel for export. Additional manufacturing opportunities lie in renewable energy components such as solar panels or wind turbines, high-efficiency light emitting diode or LED bulbs as other examples. Trinidad and Tobago is already well placed in this regard with already advanced infrastructure and workforce.
- Saudi Arabia who can single handedly control the price of oil recently signed a Memorandum of Agreement with Germany to supply them with Green Hydrogen. They therefore understand the potential and this should be instructive for Trinidad and Tobago.
- Provides opportunity for filling the natural gas shortfall and also additional potential to be exported as tomorrow’s fuel;
- Trinidad and Tobago already has the infrastructure and expertise and therefore a strong head start;
- with proper planning Trinidad and Tobago can become the Green Hydrogen hub in the Americas;
- all the necessary factors have largely been satisfied for this: water for hydrogen source (we are an island after all!) And with experience in desalination; sunlight and wind as renewable energy source; and infrastructure;
- All that is required is bold, innovative and transformative thinking and action, and political will;
- Government whose main role is facilitator, is prepared to provide the necessary investment climate to create a perpetual booming economy given the future demand for green fuel
The government recognizes that it has to play a facilitative role in the development of the requisite policy, legislative, institutional and administrative enabling environment to attract such investments. In this regard, the government has recently passed the Special Economic Zone Bill which makes provisions for special concessions to be given to manufacturing undertaken in special geographical ones, which includes sustainable and clean technologies.
However, the energy transition may pose more significant challenges, and generate several unintended socio-economic impacts. The government, in recognition of this critical aspect of the energy transition, identified an important component of the enabling environment, namely, the need for a Just Transition of the Workforce Policy. This would provide the policy framework for not only creating the green workforce, but also facilitating the retooling, reskilling and re-schooling of the existing workforce – a large amount of which comes from the energy industries – to take advantage of the emerging opportunities and minimizing potential fall-out from “unemployability”.
The draft Policy outlines the measures needed to smoothly facilitate the transition of Trinidad and Tobago to a low carbon economy while creating opportunities for the workforce presently engaged in the carbon intensive oil and gas sector. It is our considered view that A Just Transition Policy provides substantial economic and social benefits, mitigating and preventing both social and economic disruption from a low-carbon transition, along with potentially creating new jobs and new types of sustainable work. Further, the Policy seeks to enable a low-carbon development pathway, while also reducing negative impact on affected workers, aiding the vulnerable and marginalised groups in society, and encouraging investment and education in new low-carbon technologies and pathways that will benefit the nation.
I am happy to report that the Ministry of Planning and Development has been spearheading the development of this policy along with other policy measures to catalyze the energy transition.
The Ministry of Planning and Development, as the Ministry with responsibility for environment and climate change has also taken the lead in various aspects of the climate agenda, to ensure that Trinidad and Tobago is compliant with its international obligations. The National Climate Change Policy is currently being revised to incorporate the implementation rules of the Paris Agreement, as well as the latest scientific evidence. The Ministry of Planning and Development is also the coordinating Ministry to ensure the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution, and to this end has developed an Implementation Plan and a Financial Investment Plan to guide the implementation of activities to achieve the NDC goals.
Trinidad and Tobago has several activities underway to begin the energy transition for the country, and towards the global NetZero thrust. We are executing our NDC Implementation Plan and even going beyond that. Presently, the Government, through the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries is seeking to implement a project with BP Lightsource to add 112.5 MW of solar energy to the national electricity grid. This project, once built, will be the largest of its kind in the region. Construction is expected to begin in 2022, pending the finalisation of the various project agreements. The Government is keen to remove any bottlenecks in the process to initiate this project.
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The Government is also seeking to finalise a Feed-in Tariff Policy and Implementation Plan soon, in order to allow for small scale grid tied installations of renewable energy by residential and commercial entities. These two projects should facilitate the achievement of the 10% of renewable energy by 2021 goal which the Government previously set, and admittedly is somewhat delayed. However, I assure you that as Chair of the NDC Ministerial Committee, we are working assiduously to advance this work.
The Ministry of Planning and Development is also leading the development of an E-Mobility Policy, which will provide policy guidance for the development of an appropriate enabling environment for the uptake of electric vehicle applications in Trinidad and Tobago, and thus facilitate a transition away from internal combustion engines (ICE) and toward electric vehicle applications in order to reduce overall GHG emission. The E-Mobility Policy is being finalised for Cabinet consideration in the not too distant future. Work is also underway to conduct an assessment of the infrastructural needs for charging of electric vehicles, and the Government, through the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries is partnering with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Caribbean Renewable Energy Fund (CREF), to install an electric vehicle charging station at the Queen’s Park Savannah.
The Ministry has only recently submitted Trinidad and Tobago’s Third National Communication and First Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC. These reports fulfil reporting obligations under the UNFCCC, and are the culmination of comprehensive technical work to produce the country’s latest greenhouse gas inventory for all emitting sectors; the latest climate vulnerability assessment; as well as other information on the capacity building and needs, MRV, and finance needs.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I want to end by reminding you that climate change impacts are already a reality for Trinidad and Tobago. Based on an analysis of meteorological data for the years between 1961- 2008. The country has realized an increase in mean surface temperature by about 1.7 0C. The projected impacts of climate change for the region and Trinidad and Tobago over the next few decades include reduced precipitation, but increased rainfall intensity which at present is being evidenced by our sometimes very ‘rainy dry season’, and drier dry seasons (one of which the MET office has already warned us will occur this year).
Increasing precipitation intensity would also see increased frequency of flooding and therefore, we are experiencing these impacts on an increasing basis at all levels. The extreme weather events in October 2018 that caused catastrophic flooding and loss and damage of property was a major climate alarm for us to begin to build climate resilience and to quantify the future impacts that may occur.
The costs of inaction are clear.
As I conclude I would like to thank the Energy Chamber for inviting me to attend this event, and to bring remarks to this esteemed audience of stakeholders and partners to Trinidad and Tobago and the Caribbean in the important mission of the transition to sustainable energy. I note with interest the theme of this conference, having framed the discussions around a central question “Can we achieve NetZero by 2050?” However, on reflection I would perhaps rephrase the framing question to:
“Can we afford NOT to achieve NetZero by 2050?”
It is going to be challenging but not an impossible prospect. Bold and transformative action is necessary – indeed an imperative. I am reminded of an anecdote about US President John F. Kennedy. As the story goes, when he had aspirations of going to the moon he didn’t ask his scientists if it was possible, he asked them how can you get us there? Today we have a rover on Mars and still exploring deeper space.
So let us not ask if we can achieve net zero by 2050, but rather, how can we achieve it.
I thank you.
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